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Concerns have been raised over the upcoming meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California. Similar to when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei last year, China launched a pressure campaign by encircling Taiwan with military drills and cutting off contact with the US. Beijing has threatened to “resolutely fight back” if the Tsai-McCarthy meeting proceeds, but it remains to be seen how China will respond this time.
Despite the potential tensions, Tsai is determined not to let “external pressure” hinder Taiwan’s connections with the world and like-minded democracies. Analysts believe that the meeting taking place in California and its timing could make Beijing tread more carefully or at least not escalate further. Any overreaction from China would only isolate the country further.
The meeting is particularly significant as it marks another symbolic moment for Taiwan and the US, who only maintain unofficial ties. Tsai’s increased visibility and enhanced cooperation with the US have followed China’s mounting pressure on the island, as it claims Taiwan as its own. Congress has been a pillar of increasing American support for Taiwan, with lawmakers regularly visiting and driving legislation to enhance support and cooperation.
While McCarthy may not have the same level of advocacy regarding China as Pelosi, the meeting with Tsai could help him strengthen his image as a leading voice pushing for closer scrutiny of Beijing. Meeting Tsai in the US is seen as less likely to provoke Beijing than a visit to Taiwan. The stakes are high for Beijing, as a fierce response could affect the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan and undermine efforts to repair ties with Europe.
China is aware that its actions toward Taiwan are under a global spotlight, especially after the invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin. An aggressive response risks stoking confrontation with the US, which goes against the recent call to enhance communication between Xi and President Joe Biden. A less overtly aggressive response would imply that Beijing does not want to escalate tensions with the US and potentially ease the situation.