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In the news, there is anticipation surrounding a meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California. This meeting has sparked concerns of a repeat of the pressure campaign China launched last year during a visit from then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Beijing encircled Taiwan with military drills and cut off contact with the United States in retaliation for what it viewed as a violation of its sovereignty.
This time, Beijing has already threatened to respond forcefully if the Tsai-McCarthy meeting takes place. However, the meeting being held in California and its timing may cause Beijing to tread more carefully this time, as escalating tensions could push China further away from the world.
The opacity of China’s system and its competing interests within its vast bureaucracy make it difficult to predict its response accurately. However, Taiwan and the US are aware of the potential damage to their relationship if Beijing lashes out as it did during Tsai’s meeting with Pelosi last year.
For Tsai, this meeting is a capstone event that showcases her ability to elevate US-Taiwan relations and give unprecedented international visibility to Taiwan. China continues to mount pressure on Taiwan, both militarily and economically, which has driven concerns in Washington. Congress has been a pillar of increasing American support for Taiwan, with lawmakers visiting the island regularly and driving bipartisan legislation to enhance support and cooperation.
While maintaining its “One China” policy, the US provides Taiwan with the means to defend itself and seeks closer scrutiny of Beijing. McCarthy’s meeting with Tsai could help him strengthen his image as a leading voice for scrutinizing China.
This meeting is less likely to provoke Beijing than a McCarthy visit to Taiwan, which generated intense anti-US rhetoric in mainland China during Pelosi’s visit. Beijing should consider the consequences of a fierce response, as it could push away voters from Taiwan’s main opposition party KMT and negatively impact a conciliatory message from former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to mainland China.
Furthermore, China is aware that its actions toward Taiwan are under a global spotlight following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom Xi has close diplomatic ties. Beijing has recently positioned itself as an agent of peace in the Ukraine conflict and aims to repair ties with Europe.
At the same time, Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy coincides with a visit from French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to China, which is an important opportunity for Beijing to showcase its willingness to cooperate and avoid military posturing.
An aggressive response from Beijing also risks stoking confrontation with the US, especially after a recent call to enhance communication between Xi and US President Joe Biden. A less overtly aggressive response would imply that Beijing seeks to avoid escalating tension with the US.
While a reset in US-China ties may not be on the agenda, there is a possibility of easing tension, which could have positive implications for Taiwan and its relationship with Beijing.