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In recent news, an anticipated meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has raised concerns about potential tensions with China. Last year, China launched a pressure campaign when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. This time, Beijing has already threatened to retaliate if the meeting takes place.
However, the meeting, which will occur in California instead of Taiwan, and its timing during a crucial moment in US-China relations, may lead Beijing to tread more carefully. Analysts suggest that China must consider the consequences of overreacting, as any escalation could push them further away from the world.
Nonetheless, Beijing will closely monitor Tsai’s movements and decide how much military might to flex over her meeting with an American lawmaker on American soil. The opacity of China’s system makes it difficult to predict its response accurately.
The meeting also comes at a precarious moment in US-China relations, with tensions rising over various issues. Taiwan is still feeling the fallout from Beijing’s previous response, as Chinese military forces now regularly make incursions into Taiwan’s previously respected border.
For Tsai, the meeting symbolizes a capstone event in her presidency, as she has elevated US-Taiwan relations and increased Taiwan’s international visibility. China’s mounting pressure on the island has driven concerns that they may resort to force to achieve “reunification.”
The meeting between Tsai and McCarthy is expected to focus on how the US can support Taiwan against unilateral actions by China. The US Congress has been a crucial source of support for Taiwan, with lawmakers regularly visiting the island and enacting bipartisan legislation to enhance cooperation.
McCarthy’s meeting with Tsai in California is seen as less likely to provoke Beijing compared to a visit to Taiwan. The stakes remain high for China, as a fierce response could push voters away from Taiwan’s main opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT), which is seen as more friendly toward Beijing.
China is also aware that its actions toward Taiwan are under global scrutiny, especially in light of the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Beijing aims to position itself as an agent of peace in the Ukraine conflict and repair ties with Europe.
Furthermore, an aggressive response from China risks confronting the US, just months after Xi and US President Joe Biden called for enhanced communication during a meeting. A less aggressive response could indicate that Beijing does not wish to escalate tensions with the US.
While a reset in US-China ties may not be on the agenda, there is a possibility of easing tensions. This meeting provides an opportunity for both sides to foster communication and find common ground. Finally, it is crucial for Beijing to avoid overshadowing President Emmanuel Macron and President Ursula von der Leyen’s upcoming visit to China, as it seeks to repair ties with Europe.